As fiduciaries, we routinely analyze, scrutinize and appraise information in an effort to prudently and pragmatically manage our clients’ assets. Inherently this involves reviewing a lot of data - mountains of research, charts, forecasts and assumptions that are scrutinized and challenged with an eye on growing, and protecting, our clients’ wealth. Much of the data we see is transitory and ultimately less impactful to our ultimate goals. In fact, it can be counterproductive at times. Does it really matter that one semiconductor company missed their own quarterly revenue forecast? Does an orderly -5% selloff in a well-contained uptrend matter, or is it healthy? Chasing a rumor here, worrying about the outcome of some event there…many times these are well intended, but futile analytical pursuits. They are futile because the data is ephemeral - transitory, fleeting and short lived. Other times the information is perennial - enduring, systemic and impactful. Separating the two is critical. Valuations, interest rate moves, long term trend lines, policy decisions, broad fundamentals…these are the secular concerns that will repeatedly shape the market. We believe successful investing is predicated upon identifying, and reacting to, the most essential elements of the market. The issues that really matter, so to speak. We will touch on a few in this piece. But first, let’s review the quarter (and year). As a preview, 2014 was one of those years where it was easy to get lost in the ‘ephemeral’ and lose site of the ‘perennial’. Click the button below for our review of Q4 and our outlook going forward.
Q4 2014 Market Insights